How This Strange Campaign Broke the Conventional Coach of the Year Mold.
Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It often acts as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.
In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the award. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking upset.
Yet the current race is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and longtime underperformers ascending together. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and fun season, he's competing with several other elite candidates.
This is how the hypothetical ballot should look.
5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5
Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.
Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.
Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.
During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a typical season!
Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short here.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record
The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.
Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a given after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.
Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.
Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.
The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record
Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.
Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.
Still