A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
