Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.
Serious Obstacles in the Selection Process
Multiple figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.