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Entering the planet's most popular art institution in the middle of the day, grabbing eight items of invaluable Napoleonic jewellery and disappearing into the city traffic on simple scooters may seem like the most audacious of crimes, carried out for global fame and ensuing movie adaptations.

Experts who observe patterns in international art crime, however, see Sunday morning’s heist at the Louvre as something more prosaic: the most recent in a string of quick-hit thefts centered more on the monetary worth of precious stones or metals than the historical importance, perpetuating a trend that has emerged over the last decade in Germany, the UK and the US. The location, they propose, would have been of lesser importance to the criminals.

“One might wonder why criminals who want to steal expensive jewellery are breaking into a world-famous museum rather than a Cartier store,” stated an expert in art recovery. “The answer is simple: it’s because these days a high-end boutique is better protected.”

A spate of violent jewellery shop thefts mean that many outlets have strengthened their security in recent years, with armed guards on their premises and wares no longer shown overnight. Museums, meanwhile, look vulnerable, partly because of the in-built reason of being accessible institutions in older structures, and partly the financial situation in many developed nations.

“Since Covid, governments across the globe have cut back on law enforcement and the arts funding,” said Marinello. “If thieves can get into the Louvre, it demonstrates how vulnerable our institutions have become. This is a difficult time to be a museum.”

The theft of the items – including jewelry pieces made up of eight sapphires and hundreds of gems, the crown of a historical figure containing thousands of diamonds and a extremely expensive diadem once possessed by Napoleon III’s wife that the robbers left by the roadside on their way out – has naturally been compared with the 1911 theft of the Mona Lisa from the same museum, performed by the worker Vincenzo Peruggia.

More relevant points of reference may be the recent burglary of valuables from a German institution worth over millions, the taking of a multi-million pound valuable object from a UK landmark the that year, the 2017 robbery of a valuable item from a European museum or even a series of thefts of collector items from US mining museums.

“It's a clear trend here,” said Marinello. “Break in, take items, and dismantle them as quickly as possible.”

If the artefacts were to stay whole, specialists say, the thieves would struggle to sell them. “It's impossible to trade something as recognizable as the museum's gems on the legal marketplace”, commented Lynda Albertson of the a relevant organization.

“They are too well-known, especially given the Ministry of Culture has released images of the items. Even a private collector or an sales venue would want to see paperwork confirming legal possession before touching such striking pieces.”

In the past, museums were often reluctant to go public about the disappearance of well-known art pieces and would stay silent out of shame. Now, as cultural robberies are more reported on, the keeping and sale of taken items is dangerous for any criminal.

“If you steal a Picasso, it has to stay complete or it becomes worthless, and you have to devise a plan to keep it in hiding, perhaps by passing it around dangerous individuals,” noted Marinello. “There's ongoing risk to the danger of an accomplice informing authorities to cash in a reward.”

For similar reasons, an investigator said it was vanishingly unlikely that the robbery had been commissioned. “Stolen to order is something from Hollywood movies,” he said. “No one would handle these items. It’s all around the world and in all the newspapers. If you buy this, if you are apprehended, you go to jail. You cannot show it to your friends, you cannot leave it to your family.”

Modifying stolen works by melting down or reshaping does reduce the worth. When it comes to gems, it also comes with significant danger because contemporary methods give stones a larger and lighter appearance, and antique-cut stones would either draw unwanted attention or reduce value for a coverup.

Importantly, however, melting down or reshaping eliminates the proof of the crime. “I suspect that the robbers will try to bring the stolen goods to places with diamond expertise like a country, another nation or even as nearby as Antwerp, and find someone to remove the gems,” said Marinello.

The heist at the Louvre has already brought up concerns about protective steps at the institution, with a unauthorized state auditor report expected to be released next month criticising “significant” and “persistent” delays in modernizing systems and noting that security cameras were missing in multiple areas. But security experts say showing valuable objects in older structures with a constant flow of guests comes with dangers that are not possible to remove entirely.

“Historic buildings are more difficult to secure,” said Erin Thompson. “Many of them have large accessible windows that allows for thieves to escape, and there may be preservation laws in place that mean you can’t fit them with proper bulletproof glass.”

The best security systems for buildings should be conceptualised “like a fortress”, said a security advisor. “There should be multiple levels to deter attackers.”

Contemporary structures are fitted with advanced external CCTV cameras or integrated vibration sensors that raise alarm about a smashed window in real time, but historic institutions may be hesitant to alter their appearance. Detection devices can be difficult to fit to decorated surfaces. Motion and sound detectors may also have to be turned off during the day as hordes of visitors walk through a museum.

The schedule of the robbery, which occurred between 9.30am and 9.40am local time, was typical of recent thefts, Stürmann said. “There’s a good reason why robberies tend to happen at either opening or closing times. Frequently when security rotate and before the museum is full of visitors who effectively act as additional security staff.”

Advances in technology may have thrown up new gadgets that can notify more rapidly and efficiently, but it has also given robbers new methods with which to circumvent security measures. In Paris, the robbers accessed the museum’s first-floor window with a vehicle-mounted ladder and cut through a window with a electric tool.

An author said the conversation in the country about the historic building had primarily focused on visitor management in the past decade, and not as much on security.

The museum has an in-house team of about 50 permanent emergency personnel, but their mission is mainly to safeguard the artworks from fires and water damage. “There isn't a quick reaction team,” Sciolino said. “In the end, the safety of the Louvre all comes down to government support and funding, and at present the nation lacks sufficient resources.”