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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the country's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd