Trump's Capture of Maduro: Turning a Global Superpower into a Lawless Actor
Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray regarding the American military actions on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – they set a deeply alarming precedent.
Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed
The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.
The move to assault another sovereign country and abduct its leader – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.
Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela
Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the headless administration are even more hardline.
The Superpower as Rogue State
A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a lawless actor.
He holds the view that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.
An Attack Without Legal Justification
George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.
Disregard the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.
Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers
No one buys the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.
World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN
The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.
Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.
It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.